The tech world has waited for the clash between these two titans for some time and I think the day of reckoning may soon be at hand. The title of this article may say ARM vs Intel, but it should more aptly be named how ARM will give Intel a run for its money.
This is what the market looks like now and the right column is how I think the market will look in two years.
Smartphones
To be competitive in this sector, one must have a SOC that sips power. ARM has been and still is the king of power consumption. Typically an ARM SOC consumes 1 watt at full load and just milliwatts when idle. The closest thing Intel has to those numbers is their Atom processor line which uses anywhere from 6 – 10 watts. Intel is not a sleeping giant and they have tried to get into to the mobile sector for a couple of years now. Just about every 6 months they announce that they finally have a competitive product and everyone will be seeing Intel processors in smartphones. It hasn’t happened yet and I think it may still be a year or two away before you start rocking an Android phone with an Intel processor. Regardless, ARM has this sector under lock.
Tablets
This is another sector where power consumption is important though it has a little more leeway than say smartphones. Right now the tablet to beat is the iPad which is rocking, you guessed it an ARM SOC. The A5 processor inside the iPad 2 is a dual-core beast that I estimate uses a max of 2 watts at full load. Like I said before Intel doesn’t have a processor that can match that, though I have a strong feeling they may have an Atom processor rocking a 3 watt TDP in 2012. The thing that is going to kill any chance of Intel dominating this sector is once again the iPad. Apple loves their in-house ARM SOC and I cannot see a future where Apple will ditch their own custom silicon for Intel. Unless Windows 8 tablets start dominating the playing field next year, expect this sector to be an ARM holdings domain.
Netbooks
The title is Netbooks but this also encompasses low-end laptops, think $500 and less. This is where the playing field becomes even. You still want a low power solution however the main thing is to have a cheap CPU/GPU solution. Right now AMD’s fusion series is the combo to beat with descent CPU performance, an excellent integrated GPU, and low prices. So far Intel’s Atom is pretty weak on the GPU side though I think things may be getting a bit more even once the next-gen of Atom’s come out in 2012. This sector even though has some tough competition is ripe for an ARM assault.
As I said cheap is key and ARM SOC are the cheapest on the block. ARM licenses their CPU designs to all the big boys charging a measly 1 -3 cents per CPU produced. Since ARM doesn’t care who gets their license there is a whole slew of companies producing powerful but cheap ARM designs. Off the top of my head I can think of 5 such as Samsung, TI, Qualcomm, Nvidia, and Marvell. Just as the Android horde has taken first place from Apple, so to will ARM SOC manufacturing ARM start to chip away at the Netbook sector. However I must admit this would not be possible if it wasn’t for ARM support in Windows 8. Windows is the killer app needed to start infiltrating the traditional x86 space and it is all thanks to Microsoft.
Laptops and Desktops
I’m going to lump these two sectors together because they both share similar qualities. The high-end laptop and desktop sector can handle high power consuming CPU’s which nullifies one of ARM’s main strengths. Price is not as much as a concern considering the rest of the components are exponentially more expensive. Finally people buying high-end laptops and desktops will most likely be playing high-end games or specialized software. These require extremely powerful CPUs, which Intel has, and GPU’s, which as of this writing I don’t think Radeon nor Geforce are compatible with ARM SOC. Software designed for these segments will most likely not be ported to ARM until more powerful solutions are available.
Servers
The server sector is the bread and butter of the x86 world. This is where the biggest profit margins are made and is the territory that Intel has the most to lose. Up until now ARM was a non-player in this sector but things have changed with the announcement of their A15 architecture. The A15 is an out-of-order, highly clockable SOC that will be the most powerful ARM SOC and will consume the most power though think 5-15 watt range. This will be the same SOC that will be used in netbooks and low-end laptops. Now what makes this processor interesting is that you can combine hundreds of them to have an extremely parallelized server which is the exact direction the market is moving in. Nvidia has already announced plans to hit this sector hard using ARM and their Tesla line. For further proof HP has announced that they will be released a low-power, multicore server very soon. Definitely expect ARM servers in Q1 of 2012.
Wildcard
A good fight always needs a wildcard and this one is no different. The big player that will affect ARM’s future has and still is Apple. Since the introduction of the iPhone, Apple has made smartphones a must buy and propelling ARM into the spotlight. The next huge change for Apple will involve their Macbook Airs. These extremely thin, low power devices are a perfect candidate for an ARM A15 processor. Apple loves vertically integrating everything if possible and using their own in-house silicon instead of Intel’s would be right up Cupertino’s alley.
Conclusion
This all sounds doom and gloom for the boys at Intel but that is far from the truth. Intel is a massive company with lots of smart people. They have been threatened before and have come back. They are a world leader in fabrications processes and will most likely be a node ahead of the competition for the foreseeable future. What makes this situation different is that they aren’t threatened by one company but by everyone. Apple is a huge backer of ARM as well as all the ARM licensees and now Microsoft has put their weight behind the platform. Intel will have to stay innovative but I think they need to realize we aren’t living in an X86 world anymore.
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